Tuesday, October 16, 2007

The 2030 Problem

Some of you may remember my post from September, Beware of Aging, outlining the worries my mother is going through caring for her elderly mother and the outrageous cost of care.

Quick update. Grandma was moved into a nursing home a couple of weeks ago. During that time she's undergone an evaluation to determine the level of care she needs and to figure out exactly what the cost will be. We have the answer - $195 per day - about $6000 per month - $72,000 per year. Much more than the average full-time worker in America makes in a year.

Even when the nursing home insurance kicks in in three months, after they've incurred over $18,000 out of pocket in care bills, it will still only pay out $2700 per month, leaving $3300 out of pocket.

The solution? Mom and Dad haven't figured that one out yet. Just a few days ago, care workers visited my Dad's mother. This grandmother has just come home from several months in the hospital and can no longer take care of herself either. Mom and Dad have to find a way to put two grandmothers, on opposite ends of the country in nursing care or give up what years they have left on their own good health, caring for them themselves.

This is insane. And it's only going to get worse - it's called the "2030 Problem". That's the year when the youngest of the Baby Boomer generation will turn 66 -- and will number 61 million people in our country facing care needs. Those born prior to 1946 is estimated to number 9 million. Conservative estimates of long term care costs from the Congressional Budget Office set expenditures at $154 billion in 2010, $195 in 2020, and $270 billion in 2030. Currently about 59% of care is paid for by the government, about 40% by individuals, and a meagre 1% by private insurance.

"The $120 billion in current expenses underestimates the economic resources devoted to long-term care, however, because most care is delivered informally by family and friends and is not included in economic statistics. Among the elderly who require assistance with daily activities, 65 percent rely exclusively on families and friends and another 30 percent rely, at least in part, on informal care. It has been estimated that the economic value of such informal care-giving in the United States reaches $200 billion a year--one and a half times the amount spent on formal care giving (Arno, Levine, and Memmott 1999)."

There's also a shortage of people willing to go into the elderly care industry. Low wages and poor benefits are the rewards of caring for an aging America.

Granted this is just one of the problems facing our nation in the future, but it's a future my kids will be inheriting. What burdens are we placing on future generations by our lack of attention to this growing dilemma? What kind of a country are we handing over to the next generation?

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

It gets even worse. When my own aging parents decided it was time to move my grandpa into their house and care for him, it was a disaster. It was like having an infant in the house again. Fine if you're in your 20s, 30s, or 40s, and one person can stay home and do all the caretaking. In my parents' case, they were in their 60s and nearing retirement age and not in the greatest health. They come from the generation where you don't put your aging parents into nursing homes; you take care of them yourselves because they took care of you when you were little. But the harsh reality today is that is practically impossible due to reasons that are either (or both) selfish and financial. The average middle class family doesn't have the room to bring in an aging parent, nor do they have the financial resources for one person to stay at home and be the full-time caretaker.

My gramps lived with my parents for about 5 months. He fell, when they were both at work, broke his hip and arm. For his own safety, and because neither of parents were in a position to quit their respective job and care for him full-time, he had to go into a nursing home.

The state literally took everything at that point: his house, car, money (my parents could have inherited), social security and pension. My gramps got $50/month; my parents?

Nothing.

GeekGoddess said...

Oh, Marie... I'm so sorry to hear that. In the last few days, I've read more stories like your family's than I can count.

And it just makes me sick inside.

I've been trying to research alternatives for my parents, who are 63 and 66, to take care of thier mothers. So far, every path has led to either wasting away their retirement years and what little income they have taking care of the grandmothers, or handing over all of the grandmothers' assets to the state, thus leaving them with nothing in the end.

Uniquely, dumb-ass American... the future scares the shit out of me.

Damn... now I think I have to go home and drink.

Avindair said...

Meanwhile, all I can hear in my head is the repellent, born-with-a-silver-spoon-in-his-mouth, arrogant, self-righteous, and dubiously-elected "president" of ours commenting to a woman who had to work three jobs "That's uniquely 'murican, isn't it?" with a smirk on his face. Like he'd know what working three jobs feels like?

No wonder the Chinese might be looking towards reform; they can create a much more effective feudal state with capitalism than communism any day of the week.

Things. Need. To. Change.

GG: Of course, we have to help somehow. Of course, that means more "vacationing" in "Azeroth" and online than actually going anywhere ourselves. Thank goodness we have cheap habits...

Anonymous said...

It's got so that if you want to bequeath anyone money when you check out, you have to plan ahead. five years before you go into a nursing home, you have to put all your assets into the name of someone you trust. That way the state and the nursing homes will only get your social security checks.

I'm now waiting for our uniquely 'murican Demandor in Chief to do away with Trusts because he views them as uniquely un-a-murican.

Now I need a drink!

Anonymous said...

You know what I think? I think we need to come up with a non-profit solution...like elder-care co-ops or something like that.

I mean, sure....SOME of the cost of nursing homes is specialized equiptment and trained staff...but I've got to believe that youo could bring the price of elder care down several income brackets if you cut out the opportunistic profit-taking.

Avindair said...

Anti-profit talk? That's un-Murcan!

(So spoken by a man born into so much privilege that he's skated to the most powerful leadership position on the planet.)

Anonymous said...

This is still gnawing away at me. What would an elderly person do if they DIDN'T have anyone to take care of them, or pay the first 3 months of the nursing home?

This is un-murican.